Israel
The conflict sprawling out of Gaza and across the Middle East might be one of proxies, but Iran has announced to the world – and specifically to Israel – that it’s willing to enter the fray itself when pushed.
In less than 24 hours, Tehran launched missiles at Iraq, Syria and Pakistan, claiming targets as diverse as an Israeli spy base, Islamic State and a little-known separatist militant group. Pakistan retaliated today with its own strikes on “terrorist hideouts” in Iran, reportedly killing nine.
The attacks came days after Tehran seized an oil tanker previously embroiled in a US sanctions bust-up, flexing its muscles near the Strait of Hormuz – a key conduit for Gulf oil exports – just as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have already disrupted global shipping.
That’s a shift from the first 100 days of the crisis sparked by Iran-backed Hamas’s attack on Israel. Iran had appeared content to leave the fight to its “axis of resistance” allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, while issuing diplomatically worded warnings of escalation.
The interventions are a stark riposte to anyone who thought Iran’s apparent inaction until now signaled an appetite to avoid direct confrontation.
It won’t be lost on Israel that the farthest of Iran’s string of missile strikes could have reached Tel Aviv, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used a longer-range weapon than they needed to hit their target.
That doesn’t mean the conflict will spiral into direct Iranian attacks on Israel.
But it shows Iran is in a precarious balancing act of backing Hamas in Gaza without inviting Israeli strikes at home, and responding when it feels threatened. — Patrick Sykes